CMC Markets专栏:纽币回调与继续上行空间

纽币兑美元汇率自1月份以来逐步上行，自1月份低点至今涨幅达10%， 目前涨势仍旧强筋，可能会在本月涨达0.7168附近。 但就本周来看，可能会在0.70附近受阻回调，回调潜在位置0.6815附近。

基本面：28日将迎来新西兰央行再次议息会议， 本次下调利率的预期可能性不大，在目前商品价格回涨的大环境大，纽币作为商品货币有望继续上行。

技术图形一：

时间周期：日线图

技术形态：潜在向上楔形向下突破

使用技术指标：

• 趋势指标：保利加通道，黄金分割延展线
• 随机震荡指标：Stoch随机震荡指标（14,3,3,0.8,0.2）,  MACD（12,26,9）

日线图中纽币/美元潜在形成向上楔形整理形态，并且运行于保利加通道上轨附近，很有可能在0.6990-0.70的空间受阻回调，回调的潜在位置将为0.6815附近（61.8%回荡线）。

技术指标中Stochastic随即震荡指标出现在超买区域，有准备回调的可能性，我们在这里也可以猜测潜在的熊背离。

技术图形二：

时间周期：周线图

技术形态：上行通道顶部遇阻回调

使用技术指标：

• 趋势指标：12日均线、26日均线、黄金分割线
• 随机震荡指标：Stoch随机震荡指标（14,3,3,0.8,0.2） ，MACD（12,26,9）

周线图纽币/美元运行于上升通道中，目前在通道顶端可能会遇阻回调，并且也是黄金分割线50.0%回荡线的位置。回调位置与日线中显示的潜在位置相近在0.6815附近。如果回调后继续上行则可能沿上升通道整理上行，则上方的潜在目标在0.7169。目前潜在的阻力位置在0.70整数位附近。需要密切关注此价位。

技术指标MACD正在插入正区间， 显示上涨动能较强，但这个技术指标多为较慢的指标，较适合分析长期趋势；

同时，Stoch反映出进入超买区域潜在的下行回调局势，这个指标较为适合分析短期趋势，因为其对于价格的走势更为敏感。

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.co.nz or you can call us on 0800 26 26 27.

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。